Mithrandir Metrics
Player Boston Red Sox Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Boston Red Sox

Jovani Morán

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 1", 167 lb · Age 29

Cards
3
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Boston Red Sox Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023225.31430042.1481.46
2025006.752004.052.00
2026233.18493065.0721.11
5 Seasons463.8313031160.01891.26
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal6 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace3.23
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight53%
ERA
1.74 2.68 3.71 4.75 5.68
FIP
3.09 3.63 4.23 4.82 5.36
K%
20.0% 21.7% 23.7% 25.6% 27.4%
BB%
8.6% 10.0% 11.5% 13.0% 14.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA3.23
78
BB%12.3%
16 -16 vs proj
K%26.4%
79 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.279
85
Barrel allowed8.5%
33 -36 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
25
Hard-hit allowed29.7%
97
Whiff%30.4%
94
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+99
32
Fastball Stuff+98
21
Mithrandir Stuff+98
18
Cutter Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+103
52
Slider Stuff+99
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morán, Jovani · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.279 2026-09-12: 0.2842026-09-13: 0.2842026-09-14: 0.2842026-09-18: 0.2802026-09-19: 0.2802026-09-20: 0.2802026-09-21: 0.2802026-09-22: 0.2802026-09-23: 0.2792026-09-24: 0.2792026-09-25: 0.2792026-09-26: 0.279 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morán, Jovani · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.0%Changeup: 35.1%Cutter: 11.8%Sinker: 9.1%Sweeper: 4.8%Curveball: 0.2% FF39% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 39%CH 35%FC 12%SI 9%ST 5%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morán, Jovani · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 35% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 83.2 mphCH83 mphCutter: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.2 mphFC85 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.8 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 79.6 mphST80 mphCurveball: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.4% 332 98 qualified
CH 36.1% 296 99 qualified
FC 12.4% 102 98 limited sample
SI 6.2% 51 103 limited sample
SL 4.6% 38 99 limited sample
CB 0.2% 2 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age29
Height6' 1"
Weight167 lb
Debut2021-09-12
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.77
K% Δ+0.045

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.310
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.279

Morán’s wOBA-against sits at 0.310, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.279 — a gap of 0.031, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 66 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching32026-05-23Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.9% K | 4.00 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ KC0 ER / 1 K0.1 IP
2026-04-20 vs DET1 ER / 0 K0.0 IP
2026-04-13 @ MIN0 ER / 2 K2.1 IP
2026-04-06 vs MIL1 ER / 4 K3.0 IP
2026-03-31 @ HOU1 ER / 2 K2.0 IP