Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Jhoan Duran

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 5", 230 lb · Age 28

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024693.645802354.1661.16
2025762.067203270.0801.10
2026261.826103359.1840.99
5 Seasons20312.323070123313.24031.07
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
97
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
92
Arsenal5 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.13
ERA current pace1.85
ERA rolling p502.49
Observed weight50%
ERA
1.10 1.76 2.49 3.22 3.87
FIP
1.40 1.83 2.30 2.77 3.20
K%
26.1% 28.2% 30.6% 32.9% 35.1%
BB%
4.6% 5.6% 6.8% 7.9% 9.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.00
93
ERA1.85
97
BB%4.5%
98 +50 vs proj
K%34.0%
98 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.223
99 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.5%
96 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo100.5
99
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
46
Whiff%32.4%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Changeup Stuff+93
8
Curveball Stuff+100
15
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+93
5
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Duran, Jhoan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.223 2026-09-13: 0.2272026-09-14: 0.2272026-09-18: 0.2242026-09-19: 0.2242026-09-20: 0.2242026-09-21: 0.2242026-09-22: 0.2242026-09-23: 0.2262026-09-24: 0.2262026-09-25: 0.2262026-09-26: 0.2232026-09-27: 0.223 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Duran, Jhoan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 47.1%4-Seam Fastball: 27.8%Sweeper: 10.7%Knuckle Curve: 9.4%Changeup: 5.0% FS47% · 98 mphprimary pitch FS 47%FF 28%ST 11%KC 9%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Duran, Jhoan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Split-Finger: 47% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 97.6 mphFS98 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 100.5 mphFF100 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 89.3 mphST89 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 88.8 mphKC89 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 51.0% 176 105 limited sample
SL 20.0% 69 93 limited sample
CB 17.7% 61 100 limited sample
CH 8.7% 30 93 limited sample
SI 2.0% 7 111 limited sample
FC 0.6% 2 115 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lb
Debut2022-04-08
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.50
K% Δ+0.072

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.259
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.223

Duran’s wOBA-against sits at 0.259, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.223 — a gap of 0.035, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 61 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.8% K | 3.35 ERAProjection
2026-04-11 vs AZ0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ SF0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ COL0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs WSH0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-03-31 vs WSH0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP