Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 5' 7" |
| Weight | 150 lb |
| Debut | 2024-04-28 |
Player profile / ACL Mariners
Leo Rivas
3B · Bats/Throws S/R · 5' 7", 150 lb · Age 28
Club ACL Mariners
Position 3B
Roster Reassigned to Minors
Status Out / inactive
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 86 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 3 | .233 | .333 | .274 | .607 |
| 2025 | 111 | 19 | 22 | 2 | 6 | .244 | .387 | .333 | .720 |
| 2026 | 120 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 2 | .131 | .263 | .172 | .435 |
| 3 Seasons | 317 | 38 | 52 | 2 | 11 | .198 | .326 | .256 | .582 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
7
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.283 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.238 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.266 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
xwOBA
0.226
0.245
0.266
0.287
0.306
wOBA
0.225
0.248
0.274
0.299
0.322
ISO
0.025
0.051
0.079
0.108
0.133
K%
20.4%
22.5%
24.8%
27.1%
29.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.4%
7
Exit velocity85.7
23
Hard-hit%18.2%
2
xBA0.235
2
xSLG0.336
2
xwOBA0.238
5
-29 vs proj
BB%14.3%
94
+19 vs proj
Bat speed61.1
1
K%28.6%
20
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.0 · 3B
35
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs0.3 · 3B
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · 3B
51
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.0% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions68.5% · rebadged research
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
69
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299 · validated
98
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342 · validated
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
77 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.053 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.018 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Rivas’s wOBA sits at 0.274, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.238 — a gap of 0.035, -1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 140 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 2 | 2025-10-16 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.292 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |
| 2026-04-20 vs ATH0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, RBI |
| 2026-04-17 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-15 @ SD0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K |
| 2026-04-11 vs HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 BB, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-06 @ TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |