Mithrandir Metrics
Player Milwaukee Brewers Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Milwaukee Brewers

Trevor Megill

P · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 8", 253 lb · Age 32

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Milwaukee Brewers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024132.724802146.1501.01
2025632.495003047.0601.13
2026332.636303061.2690.89
6 Seasons16143.66259281258.13101.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
93
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
82
Arsenal3 metrics
98
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.07
ERA current pace2.63
ERA rolling p502.84
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.69 2.23 2.84 3.45 4.00
FIP
1.49 1.98 2.52 3.07 3.56
K%
23.9% 25.8% 27.8% 29.9% 31.7%
BB%
5.4% 6.2% 7.0% 7.9% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.85
99
ERA2.63
89
BB%5.9%
89 +41 vs proj
K%29.2%
89
xwOBA allowed0.252
96 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.2%
71 +33 vs proj
Fastball velo97.9
94
Hard-hit allowed42.2%
22
Whiff%28.5%
89 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+106
95
Fastball Stuff+112
99
Mithrandir Stuff+112
100
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Megill, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.252 2026-09-13: 0.2592026-09-14: 0.2592026-09-18: 0.2572026-09-19: 0.2562026-09-20: 0.2562026-09-21: 0.2532026-09-22: 0.2532026-09-23: 0.2532026-09-24: 0.2512026-09-25: 0.2512026-09-26: 0.2522026-09-27: 0.252 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Megill, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 64.3%Knuckle Curve: 35.7% FF64% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 64%KC 36% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Megill, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 64% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 97.9 mphFF98 mphKnuckle Curve: 36% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 88.0 mphKC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 63.7% 374 112 qualified
CB 36.3% 213 106 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height6' 8"
Weight253 lb
Debut2021-04-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.64
K% Δ+0.026

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.229
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.252

Megill’s wOBA-against sits at 0.229, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.252 — a gap of 0.023, -0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 65 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12025-10-11Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.7% K | 3.27 ERAProjection
2026-04-17 @ MIA0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-14 vs TOR3 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ KC0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ KC0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs TB1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP