Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Alex Lange

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 202 lb · Age 30

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024034.34210218.2211.77
2025000.001001.013.00
2026276.185801059.2601.58
6 Seasons17224.31254039244.12821.43
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
20
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
30
Arsenal6 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.96
ERA current pace6.09
ERA rolling p505.12
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.37 4.20 5.12 6.04 6.87
FIP
3.49 3.98 4.51 5.05 5.54
K%
20.1% 21.8% 23.7% 25.6% 27.3%
BB%
9.1% 10.4% 11.9% 13.4% 14.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.64
10
ERA6.09
10
BB%11.9%
19
K%21.7%
46 -33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.349
15 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.1%
2 -69 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
73
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
13
Whiff%26.5%
79 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+99
26
Slider Stuff+97
19
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Cutter Stuff+100
33
Fastball Stuff+94
10
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lange, Alex · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.349 2026-09-12: 0.3422026-09-13: 0.3432026-09-14: 0.3432026-09-18: 0.3452026-09-19: 0.3452026-09-20: 0.3462026-09-21: 0.3462026-09-22: 0.3462026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3422026-09-25: 0.3422026-09-26: 0.349 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lange, Alex · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.0%Sinker: 23.1%Changeup: 21.5%Cutter: 12.5%4-Seam Fastball: 10.8%Knuckle Curve: 0.1% SL32% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 32%SI 23%CH 22%FC 12%FF 11%KC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lange, Alex · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mphSinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 95.7 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.7 mphCH91 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.1 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphKnuckle Curve: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.5 mphKC84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 32.8% 225 97 qualified
SI 22.4% 154 100 limited sample
CH 20.7% 142 104 limited sample
FC 12.4% 85 100 limited sample
FB 11.8% 81 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 3"
Weight202 lb
Debut2021-04-10
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.26
K% Δ-0.045

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.389
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.349

Lange’s wOBA-against sits at 0.389, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.349 — a gap of 0.041, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 61 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.2% K | 3.83 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BOS0 ER / 1 K1.1 IP
2026-04-20 vs BAL4 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-17 @ NYY2 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs CWS0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ CLE1 ER / 2 K2.1 IP