Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Cole Sulser

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 200 lb · Age 36

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024102.76102016.1151.10
2025211.99180022.2221.19
2026105.40372241.2441.42
8 Seasons11143.88194417213.12241.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
41
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.62
ERA current pace5.53
ERA rolling p504.45
Observed weight44%
ERA
2.75 3.56 4.45 5.35 6.15
FIP
2.98 3.51 4.10 4.69 5.22
K%
19.7% 21.9% 24.3% 26.7% 28.9%
BB%
5.5% 6.8% 8.1% 9.5% 10.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
26
ERA5.53
16
BB%7.0%
76 +40 vs proj
K%24.2%
62
xwOBA allowed0.339
26 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.4%
3 -72 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed42.5%
27
Whiff%24.5%
61
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+94
8
Fastball Stuff+112
97
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Cutter Stuff+106
86
Slider Stuff+73
0
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sulser, Cole · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.339 2026-07-06: 0.3472026-07-07: 0.3472026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3492026-07-10: 0.3412026-07-11: 0.3412026-07-12: 0.3382026-07-13: 0.3382026-07-14: 0.3392026-07-15: 0.3392026-07-16: 0.3392026-07-17: 0.339 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sulser, Cole · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.7%Changeup: 39.9%Cutter: 12.0%Sweeper: 4.2%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF44% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 40%FC 12%ST 4%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sulser, Cole · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 40% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.5 mphCH83 mphCutter: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.3 mphFC87 mphSweeper: 4% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.1 mphST83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 89.3 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.6% 230 112 qualified
CH 39.9% 201 94 qualified
FC 11.7% 59 106 limited sample
SL 2.8% 14 73 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 0"
Weight200 lb
Debut2019-09-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.96
K% Δ-0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.374
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.339

Sulser’s wOBA-against sits at 0.374, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.035, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching22026-06-27Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.4% K | 3.57 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs CIN0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ CWS0 ER / 1 K2.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs NYY2 ER / 0 K0.1 IP
2026-04-11 vs NYY0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs CHC1 ER / 2 K2.1 IP