Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Jorge Mateo

SS · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 200 lb · Age 31

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position SS Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20242083044513.229.267.401.668
202583914115.177.217.266.483
20262214142519.203.245.314.559
7 Seasons163222433035125.219.264.356.620
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
44
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
40
Defense4 metrics
45
Speed4 metrics
85
Plate skills12 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.289
xwOBA current pace0.271
xwOBA rolling p500.280
Observed weight52%
xwOBA
0.241 0.259 0.280 0.300 0.319
wOBA
0.251 0.269 0.289 0.309 0.327
ISO
0.096 0.113 0.133 0.152 0.170
K%
24.2% 26.0% 27.9% 29.9% 31.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
28
Hard-hit%35.3%
36
xBA0.333
69
xSLG0.537
61
xwOBA0.271
20 -16 vs proj
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed70.5
63
K%30.2%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · SS
27
Arm Strength94.1 · SS
94
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
19
Range Runs-1.3 · SS
40
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · SS
85
Bolts36.0 · SS
86
SB Success Rate86.4% · SS
70
Sprint Speed30.2 · SS
99
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.3% · rebadged research
10
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.0% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions62.1% · rebadged research
17
Fastball Stuff+84
1
Mithrandir Stuff+78
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.248 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367 · validated
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
18
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Mateo, Jorge · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.271 2026-09-13: 0.2902026-09-14: 0.2902026-09-18: 0.2842026-09-19: 0.2832026-09-20: 0.2832026-09-21: 0.2802026-09-22: 0.2802026-09-23: 0.2782026-09-24: 0.2742026-09-25: 0.2742026-09-26: 0.2712026-09-27: 0.271 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2025Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Mateo, Jorge · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 45%45%Chase: 44%44%Whiff: 29%29%Zone contact: 83%83%Contact: 71%71%Hard hit: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mateo, Jorge · 2025 arsenal snapshot Other: 62.9%Eephus: 37.1% FA63% · 68 mphprimary pitch FA 63%EP 37% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mateo, Jorge · 2025 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Other: 63% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 68.4 mphFA68 mphEephus: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 69″ drop, 61.0 mphEP61 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 19 84 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height6' 0"
Weight200 lb
Debut2020-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.021
wOBA Δ-0.002

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.289
xwOBA (deserved)0.271

Mateo’s wOBA sits at 0.289, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.271 — a gap of 0.018, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 235 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Fielding152026-09-255 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -1.017
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.292 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-08-15 vs BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0 | R
2026-05-20 @ MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0
2026-04-20 @ WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E0-3 | BB, K, R
2026-04-14 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0
2026-04-13 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K