Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Luke Weaver

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 180 lb · Age 33

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024732.89620484.01030.93
2025443.62640864.2721.02
2026412.69600160.1650.96
11 Seasons42504.5833010613783.18111.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
77
Arsenal4 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.79
ERA current pace2.73
ERA rolling p503.25
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.73 2.45 3.25 4.05 4.77
FIP
2.46 2.91 3.42 3.92 4.37
K%
22.7% 24.7% 27.0% 29.2% 31.3%
BB%
5.6% 6.5% 7.6% 8.7% 9.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.99
93
ERA2.73
87
BB%7.6%
69
K%27.3%
82
xwOBA allowed0.272
88 +26 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
48
Fastball velo95.3
64
Hard-hit allowed35.2%
75
Whiff%27.4%
84
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+107
87
Fastball Stuff+110
94
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Cutter Stuff+95
9
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weaver, Luke · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.272 2026-09-13: 0.2762026-09-14: 0.2762026-09-18: 0.2772026-09-19: 0.2772026-09-20: 0.2772026-09-21: 0.2742026-09-22: 0.2742026-09-23: 0.2732026-09-24: 0.2732026-09-25: 0.2732026-09-26: 0.2722026-09-27: 0.272 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weaver, Luke · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weaver, Luke · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.0%Changeup: 33.7%Cutter: 15.1%Sinker: 0.1%Slider: 0.1% FF51% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 51%CH 34%FC 15%SI 0%SL 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weaver, Luke · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 95.3 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.0 mphCH88 mphCutter: 15% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.5 mphFC90 mphSinker: 0% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.3 mphSI94 mphSlider: 0% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 52.0% 353 110 qualified
CH 34.3% 233 107 qualified
FC 13.7% 93 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 2"
Weight180 lb
Debut2016-08-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.22
K% Δ+0.025

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.278
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.272

Weaver’s wOBA-against sits at 0.278, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.272 — a gap of 0.006, 0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 62 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.8% K | 3.95 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs BOS3 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs ATH4 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-09 vs AZ2 ER / 0 K0.2 IP
2026-04-07 vs AZ0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ SF0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP