Mithrandir Metrics
Player CHC Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / CHC

Caleb Thielbar

Player · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 0", 205 lb · Age 39

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club CHC Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024245.32590347.1531.56
2025342.64670158.0560.88
2026344.86580350.0601.30
10 Seasons29203.4547208428.04631.16
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal4 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace4.86
ERA rolling p504.24
Observed weight48%
ERA
2.81 3.49 4.24 4.99 5.66
FIP
3.47 3.75 4.07 4.39 4.67
K%
21.5% 23.5% 25.8% 28.0% 30.0%
BB%
5.6% 6.7% 7.8% 9.0% 10.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
60
ERA4.86
29
BB%7.8%
66
K%27.4%
84 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
32 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.1%
14 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
30
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
58
Whiff%24.4%
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Curveball Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+101
46
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Thielbar, Caleb · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.328 2026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3322026-09-19: 0.3322026-09-20: 0.3322026-09-21: 0.3302026-09-22: 0.3302026-09-23: 0.3322026-09-24: 0.3322026-09-25: 0.3322026-09-26: 0.3282026-09-27: 0.328 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Thielbar, Caleb · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thielbar, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.9%Curveball: 25.2%Slider: 21.2%Sweeper: 14.4%Split-Finger: 0.2% FF39% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 39%CU 25%SL 21%ST 14%FS 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thielbar, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 76.3 mphCU76 mphSlider: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.5 mphSL88 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.2 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.6% 212 106 qualified
SL 36.3% 185 101 limited sample
CB 22.2% 113 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.13
K% Δ+0.031

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.343
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.328

Thielbar’s wOBA-against sits at 0.343, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.328 — a gap of 0.016, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 51 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching12026-03-08Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.3% K | 3.73 ERAProjection