Mithrandir Metrics
Player Las Vegas Aviators Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Las Vegas Aviators

Michael Kelly

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 185 lb · Age 33

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
--
Club Las Vegas Aviators Position P Roster Reassigned to Minors Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024322.59280031.1221.18
2025443.18420239.2291.29
20260016.205005.063.60
5 Seasons863.72930296.2771.37
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
49
Pitching
percentile
Arsenal4 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace16.20
ERA rolling p505.38
Observed weight16%
ERA
3.41 4.35 5.38 6.42 7.35
FIP
3.45 3.95 4.51 5.07 5.58
K%
12.2% 15.4% 18.8% 22.3% 25.4%
BB%
7.3% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 14.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-14
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+104
63
Sinker Stuff+93
8
Slider Stuff+105
72
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 57%57%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 47.6%Slider: 25.6%4-Seam Fastball: 19.6%Sinker: 6.5%Changeup: 0.6% ST48% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 48%SL 26%FF 20%SI 7%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 48% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 83.8 mphST84 mphSlider: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.0 mphSL90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSinker: 7% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.5 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 90.2 mphCH90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 67.8% 82 105 limited sample
FB 22.3% 27 103 limited sample
SI 9.1% 11 93 limited sample
CH 0.8% 1 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 4"
Weight185 lb
Debut2022-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

No Live State delta is available for this profile yet.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.7% K | 4.11 ERAProjection
2026-04-04 vs HOU0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs HOU1 ER / 2 K1.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ ATL1 ER / 1 K1.0 IP