Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Craig Kimbrel

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 0", 215 lb · Age 38

Cards
0
Modules
0
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Out / inactive
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024755.335702352.1731.36
2025012.25140012.0171.42
2026154.50460146.0401.35
17 Seasons57532.698970441867.213221.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
33
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.66
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.05
Observed weight46%
ERA
2.26 3.11 4.05 4.99 5.84
FIP
2.30 3.07 3.92 4.77 5.54
K%
20.4% 22.4% 24.6% 26.9% 28.9%
BB%
8.2% 9.5% 10.9% 12.4% 13.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
39
ERA4.50
37
BB%11.1%
25
K%20.8%
41 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
47
Barrel allowed5.1%
84 +60 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
36
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
69
Whiff%21.6%
43 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+100
20
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+102
51
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kimbrel, Craig · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3162026-09-19: 0.3162026-09-20: 0.3162026-09-21: 0.3162026-09-22: 0.3162026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.3162026-09-27: 0.316 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 65%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kimbrel, Craig · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 65.1%Sweeper: 13.6%Knuckle Curve: 10.2%Sinker: 7.6%Changeup: 2.9%Cutter: 0.5% FF65% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 65%ST 14%KC 10%SI 8%CH 3%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kimbrel, Craig · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 65% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.6 mphFF94 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.5 mphST86 mphKnuckle Curve: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 84.0 mphKC84 mphSinker: 8% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.8 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.5 mphCH89 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 68.9% 335 101 qualified
SL 13.8% 67 102 limited sample
CB 11.1% 54 100 limited sample
SI 4.3% 21 96 limited sample
CH 1.9% 9 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age38
Height6' 0"
Weight215 lb
Debut2010-05-07
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.92
K% Δ-0.058

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.344
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.316

Kimbrel’s wOBA-against sits at 0.344, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.028, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 47 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet.
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202626.6% K | 3.58 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ LAA0 ER / 0 K1.1 IP
2026-05-20 @ WSH2 ER / 2 K2.2 IP
2026-04-13 @ LAD0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-11 vs ATH0 ER / 2 K1.0 IP