Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Matt Shaw

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample491.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F 62.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 61.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.1% Market 59.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel -160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
31
Exit velocity85.8
23
Hard-hit%37.2%
39 +19 vs proj
xBA0.311
36
xSLG0.468
36
xwOBA0.300
39 -20 vs proj
BB%6.9%
29 -22 vs proj
Bat speed65.6
9
K%19.2%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
47
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs-0.0 · RF
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · RF
44
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
92
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.117
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)