Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Luke Keaschall

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample491.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 11.5
V 11.9
Model 12.0% Market 10.9% Gap +0.7pp
DraftKings 785 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.6
F 65.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 64.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 51.6% Market 75.3% Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.7
F 25.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.7% Market -- Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.7%
17 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
16
Hard-hit%31.4%
19
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.411
15
xwOBA0.299
43
BB%9.1%
55 +21 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
19
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 2B
9
Arm Strength92.3 · 2B
85
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 2B
3
Range Runs-4.9 · 2B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.6 · 2B
96
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate84.6% · 2B
64
Sprint Speed28.8 · 2B
88
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
44
Correct Decisions68.8%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.059
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)