Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Jacob Wilson

ATH · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs WSHZack Littell
Sample805.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.7
F 11.1
V 10.8
Model 13.4% Market 8.7% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 1005 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.4
F 64.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 62.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 71.0% Market 71.8% Gap +9.5pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.2%
5
Exit velocity84.2
12
Hard-hit%30.8%
16
xBA0.307
32
xSLG0.390
10
xwOBA0.285
27 -30 vs proj
BB%4.4%
10
Bat speed62.3
2
K%10.8%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
51
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
84
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs5.7 · SS
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · SS
15
Sprint Speed27.1 · SS
42
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.059
Opposing pitcherZack Littell
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)