Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Nick Kurtz

ATH · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs WSHZack Littell
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 13.3
V 16.0
Model 20.9% Market 26.5% Gap +2.9pp
DraftKings 265 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.5
F 67.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 79.4% Market 80.4% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -410 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
91
Exit velocity93.7
98
Hard-hit%59.2%
99
xBA0.409
97
xSLG0.808
99
xwOBA0.379
96
BB%17.9%
100 +17 vs proj
Bat speed76.4
99
K%31.4%
11
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
12
Range Runs-2.2 · 1B
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B
32
SB Success Rate85.7% · 1B
67
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
29
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.1%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
75
Correct Decisions71.9%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherZack Littell
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)