Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs BALShane Baz
Sample1236.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.2
F 13.6
V 13.6
Model 21.8% Market 15.5% Gap +5.7pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.1
F 81.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 80.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 68.1% Market 78.6% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.8
F 27.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 27.8% Market -- Gap +6.7pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
65 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity88.6
51
Hard-hit%46.8%
81
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.586
70
xwOBA0.316
56 -34 vs proj
BB%8.1%
41 +19 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
76
K%24.2%
37 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · CF
89
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
76
Outs Above Avg2.0 · CF
89
Range Runs0.9 · CF
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · CF
93
Bolts2.0 · CF
36
SB Success Rate87.5% · CF
74
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
85
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.6%
92
Correct Decisions67.2%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.394
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.021
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)