Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs TORShane Bieber
Sample600.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 13.2
V 12.5
Model 18.4% Market 23.3% Gap -4.8pp
BetMGM 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F 60.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 63.8% Market 72.6% Gap +9.9pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.7
F 13.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 15.7% Market -- Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
82
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%44.1%
72
xBA0.345
75
xSLG0.694
93
xwOBA0.324
67
BB%8.1%
44
Bat speed74.3
96
K%32.3%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
21
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
20
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs3.6 · SS
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · SS
10
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
60
Correct Decisions65.8%
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.364 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherShane Bieber
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)