Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample591.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 16.0% Market 11.0% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.1
F 65.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 53.1% Market 65.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.5
F 11.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 13.5% Market -- Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
39
Exit velocity85.6
21
Hard-hit%37.5%
40
xBA0.276
13
xSLG0.470
36
xwOBA0.299
40 -17 vs proj
BB%13.6%
90 +32 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
33
K%23.8%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
40
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
33
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs5.0 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · CF
94
Bolts14.0 · CF
78
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
95
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-12
Palantir 5214 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 5214 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)