Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 9 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample1247.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 68.3
F 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 68.3% Market 66.2% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel -220 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
76
Exit velocity89.6
65
Hard-hit%48.7%
87 +31 vs proj
xBA0.361
83
xSLG0.676
89
xwOBA0.356
82 +21 vs proj
BB%8.1%
41 +24 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%25.3%
33 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.9 · CF
100
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
97
Outs Above Avg13.0 · CF
100
Range Runs11.7 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
89
Bolts18.0 · CF
83
SB Success Rate76.5% · CF
36
Sprint Speed29.3 · CF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.6%
18
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2%
70
Correct Decisions63.5%
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.315 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.377
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)