Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINTaj Bradley
Sample1443.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.7
F 14.4
V 14.5
Model 17.9% Market 18.2% Gap -1.0pp
DraftKings 430 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F 66.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 64.1% Market 76.5% Gap +10.8pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.9
F 19.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.9% Market -- Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity88.2
49
Hard-hit%41.1%
59
xBA0.317
45
xSLG0.566
68
xwOBA0.345
82
BB%14.5%
95 +22 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
10
K%21.9%
53 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 1B
89
Range Runs3.1 · 1B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · 1B
7
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.2%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
41
Correct Decisions68.0%
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherTaj Bradley
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)