Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample2284.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.3
F 13.8
V 16.3
Model 23.5% Market 17.3% Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.7
F 72.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 69.7% Market 82.8% Gap +12.5pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.4
F 29.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 27.4% Market -- Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
50 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%45.2%
77 -18 vs proj
xBA0.318
47
xSLG0.521
54
xwOBA0.308
50 -43 vs proj
BB%7.9%
42 -25 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
85
K%22.2%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
67
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
91
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs1.8 · SS
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · SS
78
Bolts2.0 · SS
33
SB Success Rate85.7% · SS
67
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
26
Correct Decisions64.5%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.320
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.415
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)