Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample1943.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.5
F 16.9
V 12.8
Model 24.6% Market 15.0% Gap +9.0pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.0
F 69.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.0% Market 80.6% Gap +11.9pp
FanDuel -175 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 33.0
F 34.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 33.0% Market -- Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
94 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%54.4%
97
xBA0.397
96
xSLG0.714
95
xwOBA0.359
88
BB%9.6%
63
Bat speed73.6
93
K%28.4%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
43
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
96
Range Runs5.9 · SS
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · SS
71
Bolts3.0 · SS
42
SB Success Rate69.2% · SS
25
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
77
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9%
13
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)