Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-16

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample1157.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.3
F 54.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 58.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 48.3% Market 64.3% Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 11.8
F 10.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 11.8% Market -- Gap +13.4pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93 +21 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%42.1%
64
xBA0.344
73
xSLG0.642
85
xwOBA0.333
73 +19 vs proj
BB%7.4%
35 -16 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
83
K%25.4%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.2 · C
12
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
30
Framing Runs-0.4 · C
43
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
12
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.270 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-16
Palantir 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3783 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)