Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Francisco Alvarez

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample1070.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 51.4
F 65.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 51.4% Market 65.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.9
F 15.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 16.9% Market -- Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
94 +27 vs proj
Exit velocity90.4
79
Hard-hit%41.0%
56 -18 vs proj
xBA0.330
56
xSLG0.617
79
xwOBA0.334
71 +19 vs proj
BB%8.0%
41
Bat speed72.4
84
K%22.7%
45 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.6 · C
17
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
35
Framing Runs-0.5 · C
45
Pop Time2.0 · C
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
14
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)