Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Ryan Jeffers

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample1772.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 13.4
V 11.0
Model 15.9% Market 12.5% Gap +3.0pp
DraftKings 675 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.2
F 63.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 61.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 54.2% Market 71.4% Gap +9.6pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.9
F 19.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 17.9% Market -- Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.2%
97 +40 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
76
Hard-hit%41.1%
60
xBA0.326
56
xSLG0.610
79
xwOBA0.389
98 +33 vs proj
BB%13.6%
92 +40 vs proj
Bat speed71.2
72
K%14.8%
87 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
72
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
15
Framing Runs0.9 · C
64
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · C
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.338
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.423
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.072
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)