Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample2187.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 21.4% Market 11.8% Gap +9.1pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.0
F 83.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 82.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 72.0% Market 80.0% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.2
F 26.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 26.2% Market -- Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
79 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
76
Hard-hit%42.4%
63
xBA0.340
66
xSLG0.572
67
xwOBA0.295
36 -36 vs proj
BB%7.5%
36
Bat speed73.2
90
K%29.0%
17 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · LF
30
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
43
Outs Above Avg3.0 · LF
94
Range Runs3.8 · LF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · LF
86
Bolts5.0 · LF
57
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
95
Sprint Speed29.1 · LF
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0%
25
Correct Decisions61.3%
12
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.260 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)