Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Matt McLain

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IL10 · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 58.7
F 56.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 60.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 66.1% Market 67.2% Gap +8.5pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%39.7%
52
xBA0.329
59
xSLG0.562
68
xwOBA0.317
61
BB%11.2%
79 +31 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%26.1%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
16
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
89
Range Runs1.9 · 2B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 2B
16
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
57
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
84
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
46
Correct Decisions68.2%
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)