Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SDGriffin Canning
Sample2855.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.0
F 14.4
V 19.3
Model 22.4% Market 16.9% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.4
F 71.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.4 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 69.4% Market 83.0% Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel -150 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 32.6
F 33.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 32.6% Market -- Gap +7.4pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity93.2
96
Hard-hit%53.9%
97
xBA0.386
95
xSLG0.647
86
xwOBA0.389
98
BB%9.4%
61 +27 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%17.7%
76
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
80
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
92
Outs Above Avg18.0 · SS
100
Range Runs13.1 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.4 · SS
98
Bolts69.0 · SS
99
SB Success Rate89.3% · SS
76
Sprint Speed30.2 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.0%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
38
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.012
Opposing pitcherGriffin Canning
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)