Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample1105.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 18.9% Market 15.5% Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.6
F 76.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 74.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 60.6% Market 71.7% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.3
F 18.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 16.3% Market -- Gap +13.1pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
86
Exit velocity89.4
62
Hard-hit%42.8%
64
xBA0.343
69
xSLG0.594
71
xwOBA0.342
76
BB%8.5%
45 -17 vs proj
Bat speed72.1
81
K%20.0%
62 +31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
76
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
95
Outs Above Avg3.0 · RF
94
Range Runs3.0 · RF
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · RF
15
Bolts1.0 · RF
16
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
51
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.8%
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9%
54
Correct Decisions65.7%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-18
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)