Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

José Tena

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs ATHJ.t. Ginn
Sample515.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 14.2
V 9.7
Model 11.6% Market 7.7% Gap +3.6pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.9
F 60.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 59.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 69.0% Market 70.2% Gap +9.2pp
BetMGM -235 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
48
Exit velocity91.6
90
Hard-hit%48.8%
88 +24 vs proj
xBA0.374
90
xSLG0.593
75
xwOBA0.313
57
BB%7.0%
30
Bat speed71.8
77
K%28.9%
19 -42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
59 Regression applied
Range Runs-1.4 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · DH
68
Bolts1.0 · DH
15
Sprint Speed27.8 · DH
61
SB Success Rate75.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.255 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherJ.t. Ginn
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)