Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt
Sample1770.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.3
F 14.4
V 13.1
Model 19.3% Market 13.3% Gap +5.5pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.4
F 69.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 60.4% Market 79.6% Gap +11.7pp
FanDuel -120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.7
F 28.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 27.7% Market -- Gap +8.6pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89 +29 vs proj
Exit velocity91.7
91
Hard-hit%49.2%
89 +24 vs proj
xBA0.353
80
xSLG0.648
87
xwOBA0.383
97 +20 vs proj
BB%8.2%
45
Bat speed71.6
76
K%15.2%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 1B
46
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9%
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
42
Correct Decisions65.5%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.013
Opposing pitcherBrandon Pfaadt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)