Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Alejandro Kirk

TOR · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample1913.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 45.8
F 59.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 58.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 45.8% Market 68.8% Gap +8.6pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 14.6
F 14.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 14.6% Market -- Gap +8.1pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.8%
10 -55 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
35
Hard-hit%37.6%
45 -26 vs proj
xBA0.257
7
xSLG0.359
5
xwOBA0.263
12 -69 vs proj
BB%9.7%
65
Bat speed68.9
39
K%15.0%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.8 · C
96
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
38
Framing Runs2.6 · C
77
Pop Time2.0 · C
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed22.9 · C
0
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.057
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)