Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Iván Herrera

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs AZBrandon Pfaadt
Sample1022.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.2
F 14.4
V 12.8
Model 16.4% Market 12.6% Gap +3.4pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.3
F 64.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 73.6% Market 74.7% Gap +10.4pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
37 -31 vs proj
Exit velocity89.1
61
Hard-hit%40.3%
55 -19 vs proj
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.477
38
xwOBA0.345
83
BB%11.8%
83 +28 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%16.2%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
39
Catcher Throwing-3.2 · C
3
Framing Runs-0.2 · C
47
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · DH
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
93
Sprint Speed25.9 · DH
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1%
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
41
Correct Decisions66.1%
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.324 to 0.383
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherBrandon Pfaadt
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)