Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Tj Friedl

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample1811.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.9
F 14.4
V 12.2
Model 23.5% Market 12.8% Gap +10.2pp
DraftKings 655 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.9
F 68.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 57.9% Market 77.8% Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.9
F 29.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 27.9% Market -- Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
14
Exit velocity83.5
9
Hard-hit%32.6%
24
xBA0.262
8
xSLG0.360
5
xwOBA0.242
5 -35 vs proj
BB%7.9%
41 -23 vs proj
Bat speed65.9
11
K%23.6%
42 -39 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
39
Arm Strength89.9 · CF
21
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs2.3 · CF
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · CF
29
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.242
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.263 to 0.338
RegressionNegative · -0.055
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)