Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · Hitter
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample2807.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.4
F 13.8
V 15.2
Model 19.0% Market 19.5% Gap -1.2pp
DraftKings 395 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.8
F 68.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.8% Market 80.8% Gap +11.9pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.6
F 24.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.6% Market -- Gap +7.6pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%12.0%
99
Exit velocity94.7
99
Hard-hit%53.1%
96
xBA0.422
99
xSLG0.899
99
xwOBA0.474
100
BB%14.5%
96 +18 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
98
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-1.6 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.4 · DH
1
Sprint Speed24.8 · DH
4
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.9%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.0%
62
Correct Decisions65.7%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.346 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.404
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.011
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)