Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Josh Smith

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 23.3
F 20.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 24.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 23.3% Market 25.4% Gap +2.1pp
DraftKings 310 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
24
Exit velocity86.4
27
Hard-hit%36.9%
38
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.422
21
xwOBA0.300
41
BB%13.3%
89 +37 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
18
K%19.5%
64
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.5 · 2B
10
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
18
Range Runs-1.7 · 2B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
49
SB Success Rate66.7% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.289 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.313
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.350
RegressionNegative · -0.023
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)