Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter
IL60 · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs LADBlake Snell
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 52.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.4% Market 61.5% Gap +9.1pp
BetMGM -160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
95
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%44.7%
79
xBA0.365
91
xSLG0.648
89
xwOBA0.355
93
BB%3.3%
5
Bat speed70.5
63
K%19.6%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
50
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
18
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs1.4 · LF
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · LF
53
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
77
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
61
Correct Decisions67.1%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.366 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.349
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherBlake Snell
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)