Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs SEABryan Woo
Sample1027.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 48.1
F 46.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 49.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 53.1% Market 54.5% Gap +6.5pp
BetMGM -120 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
91 +37 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
74
Hard-hit%44.7%
75 +21 vs proj
xBA0.368
88
xSLG0.655
88
xwOBA0.361
89 +38 vs proj
BB%3.1%
5 -16 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
62
K%19.0%
70 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
46
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
19
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs1.7 · LF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
44
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
67
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
70
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
58
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.345
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherBryan Woo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)