Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Casey Schmitt

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs CHCJavier Assad
Sample918.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 38.9
F 37.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 40.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 38.9% Market 38.4% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.1%
90 +36 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
63
Hard-hit%42.7%
64
xBA0.356
78
xSLG0.636
82
xwOBA0.348
78 +30 vs proj
BB%3.6%
7
Bat speed70.1
58
K%19.2%
67 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
47
Arm Strength89.5 · LF
20
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
79
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · DH
39
SB Success Rate80.0% · DH
51
Sprint Speed28.2 · DH
74
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.2%
49
Correct Decisions65.7%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.348
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.368 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcherJavier Assad
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)