Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Jake Burger

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs BOSRanger Suarez
Sample1836.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 18.8% Market 19.7% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 390 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.7
F 78.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 76.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 63.7% Market 73.3% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.2
F 25.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 23.2% Market -- Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
66 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity90.4
78
Hard-hit%48.1%
85
xBA0.343
68
xSLG0.570
67
xwOBA0.312
52
BB%7.7%
38 +24 vs proj
Bat speed72.6
85
K%25.3%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
45
Range Runs0.9 · 1B
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 1B
50
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
43
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2%
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
42
Correct Decisions62.6%
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.397
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherRanger Suarez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)