Mithrandir Metrics
LAD 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Will Smith

LAD · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IL10 · 9 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupLAD vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 63.6
F 64.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 72.6% Market 73.7% Gap +10.1pp
BetMGM -280 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity90.1
75
Hard-hit%40.1%
54
xBA0.343
72
xSLG0.615
80
xwOBA0.385
97
BB%10.8%
75
Bat speed68.5
35
K%18.9%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.8 · C
84
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
35
Framing Runs-0.9 · C
34
Pop Time2.0 · C
41
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.2 · C
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.389
RegressionPositive · 0.049
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)