Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Brandon Marsh

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample2204.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 38.2
F 52.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 50.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 38.2% Market 55.6% Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 6.0
F 8.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 6.0% Market -- Gap +21.2pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
72
Exit velocity89.5
66
Hard-hit%45.2%
77
xBA0.376
91
xSLG0.611
80
xwOBA0.320
64
BB%5.2%
14 -53 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%25.9%
32
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.3 · LF
1
Arm Strength100.5 · LF
95
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs-1.0 · LF
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · LF
81
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
74
Sprint Speed28.2 · LF
73
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3%
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2%
16
Correct Decisions63.9%
28
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.052
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)