Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Adley Rutschman

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs HOUSpencer Arrighetti
Sample2122.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 14.5
Model 21.5% Market 11.9% Gap +9.2pp
DraftKings 710 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.0
F 64.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.8 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 56.0% Market 75.6% Gap +10.6pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.5
F 18.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 19.5% Market -- Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
56
Exit velocity89.3
65
Hard-hit%42.9%
67 +20 vs proj
xBA0.330
60
xSLG0.521
55
xwOBA0.348
84
BB%10.0%
67
Bat speed69.2
43
K%13.8%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
73
Catcher Throwing3.3 · C
99
Framing Runs5.0 · C
96
Pop Time1.9 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · C
25
Sprint Speed26.3 · C
23
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.371 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.293 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)