Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 31
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample3805.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 18.5% Market 13.5% Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.7
F 73.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V 73.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 57.7% Market 72.0% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel -105 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.4
F 22.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 23.4% Market -- Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
50
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%45.3%
73
xBA0.351
76
xSLG0.592
71
xwOBA0.367
88
BB%15.8%
97 +56 vs proj
Bat speed70.3
60
K%21.5%
52 +17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
46
Arm Strength93.9 · LF
66
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
9
Range Runs-2.9 · LF
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
58
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
95
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4%
75
Correct Decisions71.5%
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline110
90
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.391
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)