Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample1582.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 12.8
V 10.6
Model 20.1% Market 12.8% Gap +6.8pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.5
F 60.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 59.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 54.5% Market 67.2% Gap +8.5pp
FanDuel -125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.7
F 18.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 16.7% Market -- Gap +17.2pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
80 +31 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
59
Hard-hit%42.9%
67 +22 vs proj
xBA0.345
74
xSLG0.605
78
xwOBA0.368
92 +53 vs proj
BB%13.4%
91 +22 vs proj
Bat speed71.4
74
K%19.6%
68 +29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · LF
52
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
11
Range Runs-1.4 · LF
31
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
52
Sprint Speed27.5 · LF
53
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions71.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.351 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)