Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-06-13 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-13

Jj Bleday

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs AZMichael Soroka
Sample1491.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.2
F 11.4
V 11.4
Model 20.1% Market 12.8% Gap +6.8pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 29.4
F 56.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 54.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 29.4% Market 53.2% Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 14.0
F 15.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 14.0% Market -- Gap +15.6pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
93 +44 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
77
Hard-hit%48.4%
86 +46 vs proj
xBA0.357
80
xSLG0.670
88
xwOBA0.390
97 +59 vs proj
BB%12.4%
84 +16 vs proj
Bat speed71.3
74
K%18.5%
73 +37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
66
Arm Strength98.5 · LF
92
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
21
Range Runs-1.3 · LF
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
59
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
49
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.8%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.368
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.054
Opposing pitcherMichael Soroka
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)