Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Randy Arozarena

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 31
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs WSHZack Littell
Sample3171.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 21.1% Market 13.8% Gap +6.7pp
FanDuel 595 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.5
F 69.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 69.2 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 56.5% Market 68.5% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.1
F 18.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 20.1% Market -- Gap +13.2pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
53 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
86
Hard-hit%43.2%
65 -20 vs proj
xBA0.365
84
xSLG0.579
68
xwOBA0.355
81
BB%9.4%
59
Bat speed68.7
38
K%21.9%
50
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
24
Arm Strength90.7 · LF
31
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
21
Range Runs-1.0 · LF
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.7 · LF
99
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
95
Sprint Speed27.1 · LF
43
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1%
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
48
Correct Decisions64.6%
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.054
Opposing pitcherZack Littell
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-16
Palantir 6003 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 6003 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)