Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 33
IL10 · 4 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs STLDustin May
Sample3462.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 38.5
F 39.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 38.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 42.6% Market 43.5% Gap +5.0pp
BetMGM 130 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
24 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
41
Hard-hit%34.3%
29 -25 vs proj
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.396
12
xwOBA0.278
21 -35 vs proj
BB%5.4%
16
Bat speed68.6
36
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
83
Arm Strength93.6 · LF
56
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
6
Range Runs-2.7 · LF
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · LF
20
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.295 to 0.362
RegressionPositive · 0.020
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-19
Palantir 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d error falling
Fangorn 9780 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 4185 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)