Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs LADEmmet Sheehan
Sample2432.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.3
F 14.4
V 16.0
Model 20.2% Market 18.1% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.4
F 66.4 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 76.5% Market 77.5% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -345 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
49 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
68
Hard-hit%40.9%
58
xBA0.315
42
xSLG0.544
62
xwOBA0.292
34 -34 vs proj
BB%10.6%
73
Bat speed70.9
70
K%28.8%
20
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
44
Arm Strength83.6 · 2B
30
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs5.8 · 2B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · 2B
97
Bolts5.0 · 2B
56
SB Success Rate88.0% · 2B
72
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.7%
19
Correct Decisions65.6%
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.244 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.034
Opposing pitcherEmmet Sheehan
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)