Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-16

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample4133.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.5
F 18.1
V 15.0
Model 21.9% Market 24.1% Gap -2.2pp
BetMGM 315 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.8
F 66.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 70.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 67.8% Market 80.4% Gap +11.9pp
FanDuel -120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.8
F 25.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 26.8% Market -- Gap +6.5pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.5%
98
Exit velocity92.0
92
Hard-hit%49.0%
88
xBA0.364
86
xSLG0.728
96
xwOBA0.431
100
BB%16.3%
98
Bat speed69.5
47
K%13.1%
93 +21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.5 · LF
11
Arm Strength87.7 · LF
12
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · LF
14
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
16
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.8%
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
66
Correct Decisions70.5%
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
91
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-16
Palantir 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3783 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)